Fading the pre-New-York range

Price sweeps the high and low of every M5 candle from 00:00 to 13:25 UTC, fails to hold, and an M5 candle closes back inside. You take that close and trade against the sweep. US100.cash, Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday, entries in 13:30–20:00 UTC, the New York session, flat by the end of the window. 2026 only — 119 trades on 147 eligible days.

Risk per trade

Every percentage here is R × risk. R values, win rate and profit factor do not move.

01The result

Every trade the rules produced in 2026. Nothing excluded after the fact.

Trades

119

17.6 a month

Win rate

61.5%

72 W · 45 L · 2 scratch

Per trade

+0.234 R

+0.59% of the account

Total

+27.9 R

+69.7% at 2.5% risk

Reward : risk

1.24

median · 1.16 average

Profit factor

1.70

avg win +0.94 R · avg loss -0.88 R

Worst drawdown

7.8 R

-19.4% at 2.5% risk

Worst losing run

best winning run 10

Cumulative return, trade by trade. The axis follows the risk selector.

02The rules

Draw one fib on the range before the session. Everything else reads off it.

Step
The range	The high and low of every M5 candle from 00:00 to 13:25 UTC. The last one opens at 13:25 and closes as the session begins; the 13:30 candle is the first that can signal.
Draw the fib	Anchor 0 on the level you are fading, 1 on the other side. Longs: drag low→high. Shorts: high→low.
The sweep	Price trades beyond the level during 13:30–20:00 UTC, the New York session
The entry	An M5 candle closes back inside the level. Enter at that close, at market. One trade a day — the first signal only.
The stop	The −0.25 fib — 25% of the range beyond the level
The target	The 0.50 fib — 50% of the range back inside. Reward:risk therefore varies; median 1.24.
The stop move	None. Moving it to breakeven or to −0.5R was measured on both strategies and lost money every way it was tried.
The exit	Stop, target, or the close of the window — whichever comes first
Days	Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. Wednesday is excluded — the only losing day of the week, negative in six months of nine, and in all three years tested.

03Month by month

7 of 9 months green.

Month	Trades	Win rate	Per trade	Total	At 2.5%
Jan	13	54%	+0.434 R	+5.6 R	+14.1%
Feb	13	85%	+0.620 R	+8.1 R	+20.1%
Mar	17	50%	+0.067 R	+1.1 R	+2.8%
Apr	15	60%	+0.114 R	+1.7 R	+4.3%
May	13	77%	+0.510 R	+6.6 R	+16.6%
Jun	14	69%	+0.371 R	+5.2 R	+13.0%
Jul	16	38%	-0.301 R	-4.8 R	-12.1%
Aug	12	75%	+0.372 R	+4.5 R	+11.2%
Sep	6	50%	-0.023 R	-0.1 R	-0.4%

04How the trades ended

Exit	Trades	Share	Average	Total	At 2.5%
hit the target	62	52%	+0.99 R	+61.6 R	+154.1%
stopped out	38	32%	-1.00 R	-38.0 R	-95.0%
closed at the session end	19	16%	+0.22 R	+4.2 R	+10.6%

A trade that reaches neither level is closed at the end of the window, at whatever price is there. Those are neither wins by design nor failures — they are the rule running out of time.

05Market or limit?

The signal is the same either way. This is only about the fill.

The confirming candle closes some way back inside the level, and you buy that close. The alternative is to rest a limit between the level and that close and wait for price to come back: a better price when it fills, and no trade at all when it does not. Because the stop and the target are both pinned to the level, a fill at the level is always 0.50 / 0.25 — the reward to risk stops varying.

Fill	Filled	Trades	Win rate	RR	Per trade	Total	At 2.5%	Drawdown	Worst run
market on the close live	100%	119	61.5%	1.24	+0.234 R	+27.9 R	+69.8%	7.8 R	4
limit at the level	92%	110	49.1%	2.00	+0.319 R	+35.1 R	+87.8%	6.8 R	5
limit 25% back toward the close	96%	114	50.4%	1.79	+0.273 R	+31.1 R	+77.8%	7.5 R	5
limit 50% back toward the close	98%	116	54.0%	1.61	+0.236 R	+27.4 R	+68.5%	8.1 R	5
limit 75% back toward the close	100%	119	55.7%	1.44	+0.207 R	+24.6 R	+61.5%	7.2 R	4

Limit at the level ends the year ahead — +35.1 R against +27.9 R, on 110 trades rather than 119, with a 6.8 R drawdown against 7.8. It is not what this page reports, because it was measured after the parameters were fixed and on the same year, and because the 8% of signals it never fills are not a cost you can see until you have lived through them. The live rule takes every signal.

01The result

02The rules

03Month by month

04How the trades ended

05Market or limit?

06Every trade

07What this does not show